Guide
Guide · 5 min read
Promos and bonuses: when a free bet is worth something
Sportsbooks hand out free bets, deposit matches, and odds boosts to get you in the door and keep you there. Some of these promos genuinely carry value, and some are worth far less than the headline. The way to tell them apart is to work out what the offer is really worth after its conditions, which is plain arithmetic once you know where to look.
A free bet is not free money
The key fact about a free bet is that you keep the winnings but not the stake. If you win a $100 free bet at +100, you collect $100, not $200, because the stake is not returned the way it is on a cash bet. That makes a free bet worth less than its face value, usually around 60 to 70 cents on the dollar depending on the odds you use it at. Longer odds squeeze more value out of a free bet, because the winnings are a bigger share of the payout.
What a $100 free bet is really worth
Used at -200 (wins $50): if it wins about 67% of the time, average value is about $33.
Used at +100 (wins $100): if it wins about 50% of the time, average value is about $50.
Used at +400 (wins $400): if it wins about 20% of the time, average value is about $80.
Same $100 free bet, worth more at longer odds because you keep only the winnings.
The rollover is where value leaks
A deposit match often comes with a rollover, also called a playthrough: a rule that you must bet the bonus some number of times before you can withdraw it. A 5-times rollover on a $100 bonus means $500 of bets, and every one of those bets pays the sportsbook its fee. The more times you have to roll the bonus over, the more of it the fee quietly eats before you can ever take it out. A big headline bonus with a heavy rollover can be worth very little.
Boosts: sometimes real, sometimes not
An odds boost raises the price on a specific bet, say from +150 to +200. That can be real value, if the boosted price is now better than the fair price with the fee removed. But some boosts start from a bad base price, so the boosted number is still worse than fair. The only way to know is to check the boosted price the same way you would any other: against a fair estimate of the chance. A boost on a bad price is still a bad price.
How to value a promo honestly
Three questions settle almost any offer. Does the bet return your stake, or only the winnings? Is there a rollover, and how many times? And is the price you are pushed toward actually better than fair, or just dressed up to look it? Promos can be worth claiming, especially a straightforward free bet used at sensible odds. The honest view is that they are marketing with a real but limited value, and the conditions are designed to shrink that value, not grow it. Work the numbers and take the ones that clear the bar.
A free bet returns winnings but not stake, so it is worth less than its face and more at longer odds. Rollovers let the fee eat a bonus, and a boost only helps if the boosted price beats fair. Value the conditions, not the headline.
For entertainment and education. Nothing here predicts results or recommends a bet.