The price you take is most of what a bet costs.

Across 384 NFL game-line prices, the best price from any sportsbook finished 1.3 points behind the market’s closing price on average. A single big sportsbook finished 2.4 points behind. Shopping for the price took off about half of that.

"Points" means percentage points of win chance. The market’s price is the sharpest guide we have to the true chance, once the bookmaker's cut is taken out.

Bet $100 on every grade. How did it do?

Premium shows what would have happened if you had wagered $100 on every possible bet at the grade we give, A to F, against the final scores: wins and losses, dollars, and how each grade finished against the market’s closing price. For game lines and for player props. At the best price we found, at a big book, and on Kalshi, the prediction market. It grows with every NFL weekend.

The dollar column and the close test are for Premium. Free shows you every grade and what it means. Premium shows the money, what each grade would have won or lost on $100 a bet, and how often each grade beat the close.

The worse the grade, the further the price lands behind the close. That is the bookmaker's cut showing up in the results, not a trick of the sample.

A price a little better than fair finishes about level with the close, roughly a coin flip. That is what a fair price looks like. It is not a promise of profit.

The practical lesson: before you bet, look at the price. The same pick can cost you very different amounts depending on where you place it.

It does not show that any price makes money. A fair price breaks even before limits and fees, and a few dozen results cannot tell a small edge from luck.

The big finding above covers NFL game lines only: moneyline, spread and total. Premium's grade table also scores player props from the box scores. The market’s closing price is the best guide we have, not a guarantee of the true chance.

The replay covers NFL weeks 1 to 5 of 2026. We scanned the board twice each week and compared every price to the close.

We keep adding data

Every NFL weekend adds to these numbers automatically, and we will say so here if they change what we think. Last updated 2026-10-23.

Each weekend we save the game-line prices our math grades B- or better, then check them after the games.

11 prices is a small sample. We will not draw a conclusion until we have at least 100.

2026-W42

7 prices. Beat the close on 3 of 6, average -0.18 pts.

Results 4-3. Over a few bets that is mostly luck.

2026-W41

4 prices. Beat the close on 1 of 2, average -1.08 pts.

Results 0-4. Over a few bets that is mostly luck.

89 prop prices checked at the market’s own number. Beat the close on 45 of 78, average -0.31 pts.

Props are judged on the closing price only. The market takes smaller bets on props, so its price is a rougher guide than on game lines.

The closing price is where the sharpest market settles just before kickoff. A win does not prove a price was good, and a loss does not prove it was bad. Over many bets, the price decides who comes out ahead.

Sometimes the best bet is no bet. BetChecker shows you the math. You decide.