Guide
Guide · 5 min read
Player props: betting on one player
A player prop is a bet on one player's performance rather than on the game: passing yards, points scored, strikeouts, shots on goal. Props are popular because they turn any game into a reason to watch one player. They are also where the sportsbook fee tends to be highest, so they are worth reading carefully.
How a prop is priced
A prop usually has a number and two sides, over and under, just like a game total but for a single player. A quarterback might be listed at 274.5 passing yards, over -115 and under -105. You are betting whether the real figure lands above or below the line. The sportsbook sets the number where it expects the two sides to draw roughly even money, then adds its fee to both prices.
Reading a player prop
Passing yards 274.5, over -115, under -105.
Over cashes at 275 yards or more; under cashes at 274 or fewer.
Over -115 implies 53.5%. Under -105 implies 51.2%.
Together that is 104.7%, so the fee on this prop is about 4.7 points.
Why props cost more
Compare that 4.7-point fee with a game total at -110 on both sides, where the fee is 4.8 points, and props can look similar. But many props run heavier, with both sides priced at -115 or -120, pushing the fee toward 7 or 9 points. Props are harder for the sportsbook to price precisely, so it protects itself with a wider margin. That wider margin is a cost you pay on every prop, win or lose, and it is the main reason props are a tougher bet than they look.
The same player, two different numbers
Because props are priced less sharply than game lines, the same player can carry a different number at different places on the same day. One book posts 274.5 passing yards, another 269.5. That gap is larger than you usually see on a game total, which makes shopping especially valuable on props. The player is the same. The line and the price are not, and the difference is money.
Why same-game prop parlays are tricky
Props from the same game are often bundled into a parlay, and the legs are usually linked. A quarterback's passing yards and his top receiver's receiving yards tend to rise and fall together. Multiplying the odds of linked legs gives the wrong chance, which is covered in the guide on same-game parlays. The short version: a bundle of correlated props can look more generous than it is, because the sportsbook has priced the link and you cannot see how.
Judging a prop
The method is the same as any bet. Read the price, turn it into the chance it needs, estimate a fair chance with the fee removed, and compare. The two things to remember about props specifically are that the fee is often bigger, so the bar is higher, and that the line itself moves between places, so shopping the number matters as much as shopping the price. A prop can be fun to sweat, and knowing its real cost is what keeps it fun.
A player prop bets one player's number, over or under. The fee is usually higher than on a game line and the number moves between places, so the bar is higher and shopping both the line and the price matters more.
For entertainment and education. Nothing here predicts results or recommends a bet.