Any odds to the win rate a bet needs just to break even.

The break-even chance is the simplest, most useful number in betting. It is what you risk divided by what you get back if you win, stake included. At -110 you risk $110 to get $210 back, so break-even is 110 divided by 210, about 52.4%.

It sets the bar for every bet. A pick is worth making only if it wins more often than its break-even chance. A confidence label, a star rating or the words "lock of the day" are not a chance of winning. The price is the only hard number, and the price sets the bar.

The more a bet pays, the lower the bar. The less it pays, the higher. That is why a long shot can be a fine bet and a heavy favorite can be a bad one. It depends entirely on how the true chance compares to the break-even chance.